Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.16125.220
2014.52715.016
3010.74610.593
408.0717.616
506.1985.692
604.7064.146
703.5733.072
802.4662.164
901.4461.323

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
156.64377.758
245.02456.833
338.39449.541
434.73844.086
531.46040.195
628.90735.421
726.71332.301
825.12529.551
923.40927.010
1022.16125.220
1120.88623.809
1219.98122.331
1319.14621.249
1418.25620.195
1517.68019.095
1617.04818.265
1716.39217.311
1815.78916.383
1915.10215.606
2014.52715.016
2114.07514.460
2213.57713.836
2313.12613.447
2412.65112.859
2512.31912.509
2611.93112.210
2711.62611.752
2811.31411.400
2910.98311.019
3010.74610.593
3110.44910.222
3210.1569.841
339.8479.555
349.5699.291
359.2938.912
368.9748.630
378.7108.346
388.4788.093
398.2527.883
408.0717.616
417.8737.363
427.6307.182
437.4257.027
447.1996.824
456.9816.644
466.8286.441
476.6376.269
486.4736.041
496.3365.870
506.1985.692
516.0455.533
525.9095.380
535.7435.195
545.5825.032
555.4224.855
565.2834.664
575.1534.549
585.0274.432
594.8724.311
604.7064.146
614.5893.994
624.4713.884
634.3743.780
644.2603.659
654.1493.564
664.0413.468
673.9093.380
683.7993.267
693.7043.153
703.5733.072
713.4682.963
723.3502.877
733.2472.778
743.1322.690
753.0282.595
762.8702.512
772.7572.422
782.6402.340
792.5552.263
802.4662.164
812.3272.073
822.2271.987
832.1301.892
842.0391.813
851.9281.746
861.8331.658
871.7371.568
881.6421.498
891.5261.414
901.4461.323
911.3461.240
921.2101.144
931.0661.045
940.9270.927
950.8090.846
960.6860.754
970.5620.625
980.4210.518
990.2410.399


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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