Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.29812.633
209.6047.826
307.4145.605
405.8034.066
504.5993.057
603.6322.240
702.7551.664
801.9481.177
901.1160.724

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.10531.835
221.55124.949
319.32122.388
418.00020.361
517.03318.914
616.09016.985
715.18415.692
814.46214.535
913.71813.430
1013.29812.633
1112.84911.994
1212.33211.312
1311.86110.811
1411.44510.324
1511.0679.804
1610.7929.403
1710.4148.949
1810.1108.500
199.8928.118
209.6047.826
219.3337.549
229.0587.249
238.8547.044
248.6106.752
258.4216.574
268.2136.422
277.9476.196
287.7766.021
297.5975.820
307.4145.605
317.2705.413
327.0745.223
336.8865.076
346.7444.933
356.5904.742
366.3634.592
376.2154.446
386.0784.313
395.9594.205
405.8034.066
415.6773.935
425.5653.839
435.4253.760
445.3233.652
455.1923.557
465.0793.453
474.9423.359
484.8293.240
494.7063.151
504.5993.057
514.4962.973
524.3782.891
534.2762.796
544.1772.707
554.0612.618
563.9792.513
573.8572.452
583.7682.391
593.7022.325
603.6322.240
613.5442.158
623.4582.098
633.3742.043
643.2871.977
653.1951.927
663.1181.876
673.0261.829
682.9491.768
692.8561.707
702.7551.664
712.6781.606
722.5821.560
732.5191.507
742.4371.460
752.3631.409
762.2881.364
772.1911.316
782.1001.272
792.0351.231
801.9481.177
811.8661.128
821.8011.082
831.7121.031
841.6200.989
851.5400.952
861.4660.905
871.3970.856
881.3110.818
891.1920.773
901.1160.724
911.0460.679
920.9470.627
930.8600.573
940.7770.509
950.6640.465
960.5600.415
970.4360.345
980.2960.286
990.1010.221


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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