Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.85644.572
2022.16024.707
3015.25816.145
4010.81810.683
507.9317.397
605.7434.955
704.0433.377
802.6022.163
901.3471.157

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
170.031120.385
259.82394.340
352.96484.370
448.59776.345
544.96970.530
641.61062.672
739.21657.341
836.92652.528
934.62947.909
1032.85644.572
1131.04941.894
1229.87039.039
1328.50536.947
1427.53034.915
1526.59232.760
1625.56131.108
1724.43729.245
1823.63627.422
1922.91825.881
2022.16024.707
2121.29123.608
2220.36722.425
2319.55721.622
2418.82420.487
2518.13719.798
2617.62819.217
2717.13118.357
2816.50317.693
2915.91116.943
3015.25816.145
3114.78815.438
3214.32914.744
3313.76314.211
3413.32513.700
3512.83113.021
3612.47212.495
3712.06511.986
3811.60511.524
3911.16511.155
4010.81810.683
4110.50110.239
4210.1669.920
439.8939.656
449.5849.302
459.2688.991
468.9788.652
478.6808.352
488.4437.972
498.1797.692
507.9317.397
517.6747.136
527.4846.881
537.2836.592
547.0986.322
556.8796.056
566.6535.744
576.3795.565
586.2095.388
595.9595.198
605.7434.955
615.5574.720
625.4224.553
635.2644.401
645.0804.218
654.9344.079
664.7413.941
674.5653.814
684.4083.652
694.2223.491
704.0433.377
713.8663.226
723.7423.107
733.5632.972
743.4472.854
753.2772.726
763.1232.615
772.9472.496
782.8342.390
792.7102.290
802.6022.163
812.4532.048
822.3411.941
832.2061.823
842.0531.728
851.9271.647
861.7911.541
871.6871.436
881.5741.354
891.4481.259
901.3471.157
911.2431.065
921.1280.962
931.0210.857
940.8990.736
950.7620.655
960.6150.566
970.4970.445
980.3420.351
990.1770.252


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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