Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester



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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1074.269
2048.725
3036.025
4026.779
5020.480
6015.208
7011.372
808.036
904.812

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.992
2132.956
3121.209
4111.795
5104.988
695.783
789.514
883.817
978.300
1074.269
1171.000
1267.473
1364.856
1462.285
1559.518
1657.367
1754.906
1852.458
1950.352
2048.725
2147.180
2245.493
2344.333
2442.671
2541.648
2640.778
2739.472
2838.452
2937.286
3036.025
3134.893
3233.764
3332.887
3432.035
3530.887
3629.985
3729.100
3828.288
3927.631
4026.779
4125.970
4225.379
4324.886
4424.219
4523.626
4622.973
4722.388
4821.637
4921.077
5020.480
5119.946
5219.419
5318.811
5418.239
5517.667
5616.986
5716.589
5816.193
5915.764
6015.208
6114.663
6214.271
6313.909
6413.471
6513.134
6612.794
6712.479
6812.074
6911.663
7011.372
7110.977
7210.666
7310.304
749.985
759.636
769.328
778.996
788.693
798.406
808.036
817.692
827.369
837.008
846.710
856.454
866.114
875.768
885.494
895.168
904.812
914.485
924.104
933.706
943.230
952.896
962.517
971.976
981.521
991.003


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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