Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester



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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.850
2024.989
3017.760
4012.682
509.362
606.702
704.853
803.323
901.933

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.395
273.279
366.714
461.409
557.547
652.289
748.685
845.394
942.194
1039.850
1137.946
1235.890
1334.363
1432.864
1531.251
1629.999
1728.568
1827.148
1925.929
2024.989
2124.100
2223.130
2322.466
2421.517
2520.934
2620.439
2719.700
2819.124
2918.467
3017.760
3117.128
3216.500
3316.014
3415.544
3514.912
3614.419
3713.937
3813.496
3913.141
4012.682
4112.248
4211.932
4311.670
4411.316
4511.003
4610.659
4710.353
489.961
499.671
509.362
519.087
528.817
538.507
548.216
557.927
567.585
577.386
587.189
596.976
606.702
616.434
626.243
636.067
645.855
655.692
665.529
675.378
685.185
694.991
704.853
714.668
724.523
734.355
744.207
754.047
763.906
773.755
783.618
793.489
803.323
813.170
823.027
832.869
842.739
852.628
862.481
872.334
882.218
892.081
901.933
911.797
921.642
931.482
941.293
951.163
961.017
970.814
980.648
990.465


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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