Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester



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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.34025.220
205.89315.016
304.20910.593
403.0517.616
502.3015.692
601.7184.146
701.2513.072
800.7932.164
900.3811.323

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.02977.758
220.88256.833
317.29849.541
415.12644.086
513.67140.195
612.47035.421
711.43932.301
810.62529.551
99.87627.010
109.34025.220
118.88923.809
128.38022.331
137.94121.249
147.53820.195
157.25419.095
166.95518.265
176.59817.311
186.35316.383
196.10615.606
205.89315.016
215.67514.460
225.46313.836
235.23413.447
245.03212.859
254.89612.509
264.78712.210
274.67811.752
284.54011.400
294.39811.019
304.20910.593
314.09310.222
323.9349.841
333.7839.555
343.6689.291
353.5688.912
363.4538.630
373.3548.346
383.2488.093
393.1647.883
403.0517.616
412.9657.363
422.8867.182
432.8027.027
442.7176.824
452.6386.644
462.5696.441
472.4986.269
482.4366.041
492.3685.870
502.3015.692
512.2455.533
522.1895.380
532.1165.195
542.0635.032
551.9934.855
561.9454.664
571.8724.549
581.8244.432
591.7714.311
601.7184.146
611.6643.994
621.6103.884
631.5683.780
641.5293.659
651.4863.564
661.4423.468
671.3873.380
681.3323.267
691.2913.153
701.2513.072
711.1912.963
721.1492.877
731.1012.778
741.0612.690
751.0122.595
760.9632.512
770.9302.422
780.8822.340
790.8292.263
800.7932.164
810.7452.073
820.7011.987
830.6491.892
840.6071.813
850.5731.746
860.5381.658
870.4961.568
880.4641.498
890.4251.414
900.3811.323
910.3341.240
920.2931.144
930.2381.045
940.2030.927
950.1380.846
960.0680.754
970.0070.625
980.0000.518
990.0000.399


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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