Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester



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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester ( Jan 2010 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1095.088
2068.570
3051.900
4037.621
5026.982
6018.023
7011.927
807.240
903.506

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.125
2141.453
3132.941
4125.932
5120.731
6113.476
7108.356
8103.550
998.729
1095.088
1192.051
1288.679
1386.107
1483.517
1580.652
1678.366
1775.681
1872.930
1970.496
2068.570
2166.702
2264.615
2363.151
2461.011
2559.667
2658.508
2756.740
2855.335
2953.700
3051.900
3150.254
3248.583
3347.266
3445.970
3544.197
3642.784
3741.380
3840.078
3939.013
4037.621
4136.285
4235.302
4334.479
4433.357
4532.356
4631.247
4730.251
4828.966
4928.007
5026.982
5126.065
5225.160
5324.117
5423.137
5522.162
5621.004
5720.333
5819.667
5918.947
6018.023
6117.125
6216.484
6315.897
6415.192
6514.655
6614.117
6713.624
6812.996
6912.368
7011.927
7111.337
7210.877
7310.351
749.893
759.399
768.970
778.514
788.105
797.724
807.240
816.800
826.396
835.953
845.596
855.295
864.904
874.517
884.218
893.872
903.506
913.180
922.815
932.449
942.036
951.761
961.466
971.076
980.779
990.477


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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