Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Probability distribution for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.8821.798
Median7.2733.769
Mean10.5066.979
75% Quartile13.3967.943
Interquartile Range9.5146.145

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.33654.976
241.86937.066
336.47031.660
432.82327.834
530.41325.204
627.78922.073
726.07920.076
824.56518.344
923.46416.763
1022.23715.659
1121.32314.793
1220.39413.891
1319.33813.232
1418.67712.593
1518.09311.926
1617.54811.424
1716.99210.848
1816.45310.287
1915.8589.817
2015.4209.461
2114.8829.125
2214.5428.749
2314.1218.513
2413.7818.157
2513.3967.945
2613.0067.764
2712.6087.487
2812.2957.273
2912.0737.042
3011.6906.783
3111.3926.557
3211.0746.325
3310.8306.151
3410.5635.990
3510.3135.758
3610.0345.585
379.8215.411
389.5435.255
399.3085.126
409.1204.962
418.9624.806
428.7314.694
438.5104.599
448.3194.473
458.1424.361
467.9774.235
477.7854.128
487.6063.987
497.4563.880
507.2733.769
517.1083.670
526.9523.574
536.7773.457
546.6483.355
556.5103.244
566.3573.123
576.2013.050
586.0812.977
595.9432.900
605.8092.795
615.6552.699
625.5272.628
635.3802.562
645.2562.485
655.1222.424
665.0242.362
674.9102.306
684.7902.233
694.6482.159
704.5422.107
714.3832.037
724.2441.981
734.1331.917
744.0071.860
753.8811.798
763.7301.743
773.6211.685
783.4961.631
793.3551.581
803.2511.515
813.1231.455
823.0291.398
832.9361.335
842.7991.283
852.6951.238
862.5661.179
872.4411.119
882.3301.071
892.2271.015
902.1240.953
912.0080.897
921.8770.832
931.7150.763
941.5840.682
951.4320.626
961.2470.561
971.0520.470
980.8780.394
990.6330.308


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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