Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Historical and exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1928+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1971) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1954) (GL)
Jul4.2573.3620.2832.74456.485
Jul-Aug5.9844.5380.3415.50966.182
Jul-Sep7.4005.1880.3777.51968.664

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.55815.659
202.3149.461
301.6406.783
401.1754.962
500.8713.769
600.6402.795
700.4212.107
800.2231.515
900.0280.953

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.14054.976
27.26237.066
36.20331.660
45.42027.834
55.03425.204
64.53222.073
74.21920.076
83.94418.344
93.75116.763
103.55815.659
113.35614.793
123.17313.891
133.02813.232
142.89412.593
152.79111.926
162.67411.424
172.59710.848
182.50310.287
192.3939.817
202.3149.461
212.2259.125
222.1388.749
232.0348.513
241.9758.157
251.9177.945
261.8627.764
271.8027.487
281.7557.273
291.6997.042
301.6406.783
311.5836.557
321.5346.325
331.4846.151
341.4435.990
351.3895.758
361.3505.585
371.3075.411
381.2675.255
391.2215.126
401.1754.962
411.1354.806
421.0994.694
431.0684.599
441.0474.473
451.0214.361
460.9854.235
470.9544.128
480.9233.987
490.8953.880
500.8713.769
510.8493.670
520.8253.574
530.7983.457
540.7723.355
550.7463.244
560.7283.123
570.7083.050
580.6862.977
590.6612.900
600.6402.795
610.6232.699
620.5982.628
630.5792.562
640.5532.485
650.5282.424
660.5102.362
670.4892.306
680.4672.233
690.4472.159
700.4212.107
710.4082.037
720.3831.981
730.3631.917
740.3421.860
750.3241.798
760.3031.743
770.2851.685
780.2641.631
790.2421.581
800.2231.515
810.2071.455
820.1881.398
830.1721.335
840.1541.283
850.1341.238
860.1131.179
870.0971.119
880.0771.071
890.0561.015
900.0280.953
910.0030.897
920.0000.832
930.0000.763
940.0000.682
950.0000.626
960.0000.561
970.0000.470
980.0000.394
990.0000.308


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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