Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Historical and exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1928+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1960) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct2.2131.5470.4260.0403.66930.178
Oct-Nov4.4892.0910.7420.0545.12033.204
Oct-Dec9.12816.7550.8080.06211.21466.022

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.430
2013.467
309.089
406.212
504.425
603.052
702.135
801.404
900.770

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
162.794
249.003
343.782
439.611
536.609
632.583
729.870
827.434
925.107
1023.430
1122.088
1220.658
1319.611
1418.595
1517.516
1616.688
1715.753
1814.836
1914.060
2013.467
2112.911
2212.310
2311.902
2411.324
2510.971
2610.674
2710.232
289.890
299.503
309.089
318.722
328.360
338.081
347.813
357.455
367.177
376.907
386.662
396.465
406.212
415.974
425.802
435.659
445.467
455.299
465.114
474.950
484.741
494.587
504.425
514.280
524.139
533.977
543.826
553.677
563.501
573.400
583.299
593.191
603.052
612.918
622.822
632.734
642.628
652.547
662.466
672.392
682.297
692.202
702.135
712.046
721.975
731.894
741.823
751.747
761.679
771.608
781.543
791.482
801.404
811.333
821.267
831.194
841.134
851.083
861.017
870.950
880.898
890.836
900.770
910.711
920.643
930.573
940.493
950.437
960.376
970.292
980.225
990.153


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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