Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Historical and exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1928+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1986) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb14.93229.98441.1940.03011.74136.944
Feb-Mar31.04869.65757.8070.05525.897147.746
Feb-Apr40.13476.32268.8750.08832.882163.902

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1091.905
2066.228
3050.175
4036.503
5026.346
6017.762
7011.860
807.250
903.496

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1158.018
2136.948
3128.673
4121.861
5116.807
6109.758
7104.785
8100.118
995.438
1091.905
1188.959
1285.689
1383.197
1480.686
1577.912
1675.699
1773.101
1870.441
1968.089
2066.228
2164.425
2262.411
2361.000
2458.938
2557.643
2656.527
2754.827
2853.475
2951.904
3050.175
3148.595
3246.993
3345.730
3444.489
3542.790
3641.439
3740.096
3838.850
3937.833
4036.503
4135.227
4234.288
4333.503
4432.431
4531.476
4630.417
4729.466
4828.240
4927.324
5026.346
5125.470
5224.604
5323.607
5422.670
5521.735
5620.626
5719.982
5819.342
5918.651
6017.762
6116.897
6216.278
6315.712
6415.030
6514.510
6613.989
6713.511
6812.901
6912.290
7011.860
7111.284
7210.835
7310.319
749.870
759.384
768.962
778.512
788.108
797.731
807.250
816.813
826.410
835.968
845.610
855.308
864.914
874.524
884.221
893.870
903.496
913.163
922.788
932.411
941.983
951.696
961.386
970.974
980.656
990.330


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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