Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Forecast quantiles and observed versus year for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Forecast quantiles and observed versus year for Burdekin River at Sellheim ( Jan )

About the forecast quantiles and observed versus year plot


  1. The hindcasts are generated using a leave five years out cross validation.
  2. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  3. The streamflow data used for the cross validation are verified data obtained from the station owners.
  4. In this model validation graph the pink dots indicate the observed value. The forecast is represented by the blue lines. The darker blue lines are the 25th to 75th percentile range (Interquartile Range) and the light blue lines are the 5th to 95th percentile range.
  5. There should not be any obvious trend with time in the relationship between the forecasts and the observed values. The forecast quantile range shows how wide or narrow the forecast is.
  6. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  7. The statistics are not generated from the complete ensemble of historical reference distribution. The top 1% of ensemble members are removed for plotting purposes and some difference may be observed between the means from the observed streamflow record and the historical reference.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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