Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10444.302900.572
20269.044441.315
30185.708272.783
40135.220173.211
5099.668116.059
6072.21275.091
7052.71749.742
8035.08830.759
9018.81115.658

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11589.8653720.420
21146.7912597.277
3953.0702196.132
4799.6161895.601
5698.3061682.592
6633.5701424.803
7576.0951259.756
8524.2931117.344
9485.961988.932
10444.302900.572
11419.431832.330
12393.916762.281
13375.950711.992
14357.514663.889
15340.632614.627
16321.914578.119
17305.565536.931
18295.520497.638
19281.699465.385
20269.044441.315
21259.057418.935
22245.944394.225
23237.821378.997
24227.687356.333
25220.183343.031
26212.527331.790
27206.724314.764
28198.369301.828
29191.465288.028
30185.708272.783
31179.282259.719
32172.967246.484
33167.157236.682
34160.827227.726
35155.092215.030
36150.438205.717
37146.471196.453
38142.783188.292
39139.186181.608
40135.220173.211
41131.409165.334
42126.836159.783
43123.340155.058
44119.740148.925
45115.643143.545
46112.582137.549
47109.036132.516
48105.797125.955
49102.330121.063
5099.668116.059
5196.124111.633
5293.373107.403
5390.192102.353
5487.40997.979
5584.71793.278
5682.01488.271
5779.58485.285
5876.51182.297
5974.26679.211
6072.21275.091
6169.88371.337
6267.49468.643
6365.59666.140
6463.20163.243
6561.61561.000
6659.92758.762
6757.85856.721
6856.49454.130
6954.49751.549
7052.71749.742
7150.64947.336
7248.58745.463
7346.93143.326
7445.16841.469
7543.42239.469
7641.65037.734
7739.98035.896
7838.48434.246
7936.77232.710
8035.08830.759
8133.16228.988
8231.53927.359
8330.42025.574
8428.74224.131
8527.11522.917
8625.52521.337
8724.02719.771
8822.41818.557
8920.70117.153
9018.81115.658
9117.26514.327
9215.85712.831
9313.54911.326
9411.9309.616
9510.4548.471
968.5267.236
976.7785.591
984.3824.323
992.0383.020


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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