Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10615.0731020.203
20371.345577.026
30239.980365.311
40159.714229.164
50106.082149.910
6073.14693.905
7047.83859.833
8027.13635.282
9010.52416.577

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11505.6302369.949
21237.6381931.093
31074.8571759.597
4970.4821619.091
5886.1751515.440
6827.2641372.102
7747.0311272.125
8697.4051179.482
9646.3011088.053
10615.0731020.203
11577.992964.561
12546.241903.955
13519.691858.640
14497.448813.883
15469.472765.538
16443.606727.871
17425.579684.770
18402.316641.949
19387.141605.247
20371.345577.026
21349.613550.377
22337.173521.461
23323.815501.726
24311.242473.698
25299.547456.592
26286.135442.152
27272.031420.685
28260.467404.095
29251.185385.324
30239.980365.311
31230.315347.597
32219.647330.187
33212.582316.855
34200.857304.070
35192.025287.098
36186.043274.005
37177.227261.352
38171.055249.923
39165.574240.800
40159.714229.164
41153.804218.294
42147.308210.479
43141.582204.050
44134.512195.448
45128.024187.933
46123.828179.768
47118.407172.581
48113.992163.508
49109.771156.870
50106.082149.910
51102.053143.784
5298.180137.832
5394.988131.093
5492.014124.867
5588.768118.765
5685.141111.650
5781.936107.588
5878.564103.590
5976.01699.321
6073.14693.905
6170.36188.706
6267.60085.038
6365.04681.708
6463.04977.741
6560.78974.745
6657.72871.764
6754.89469.052
6852.79365.620
6950.11062.212
7047.83859.833
7145.82156.676
7243.83954.226
7341.97351.439
7440.06149.027
7537.95746.438
7635.27144.199
7733.14941.835
7831.26339.723
7929.10237.762
8027.13635.282
8125.37433.042
8223.17230.990
8321.77828.754
8419.98026.954
8518.32125.447
8617.01423.494
8715.40521.570
8813.76020.086
8912.25818.380
9010.52416.577
919.07414.981
927.39613.202
935.55511.430
944.1859.438
952.7498.121
961.3946.715
970.0204.874
980.0003.483
990.0002.088


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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