Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


Return to catchment list
Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1098.679239.038
2059.790118.612
3041.45774.136
4030.25147.601
5022.33032.215
6016.38621.073
7011.74914.105
807.7138.828
903.8824.572

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1318.7971024.939
2231.863700.380
3194.244587.897
4169.718505.060
5151.479447.106
6136.187377.777
7120.694333.813
8113.862296.108
9105.642262.261
1098.679239.038
1192.133221.131
1286.125202.767
1381.928189.590
1477.931176.989
1574.048164.083
1670.583154.515
1767.652143.716
1864.827133.407
1962.108124.938
2059.790118.612
2157.601112.727
2255.404106.222
2353.283102.210
2451.22996.234
2549.44492.724
2647.97389.755
2746.21085.255
2844.53581.832
2942.81378.178
3041.45774.136
3140.02870.670
3238.95067.153
3337.63064.546
3436.52462.163
3535.34558.779
3634.34856.295
3733.21753.821
3832.09351.639
3931.15349.850
4030.25147.601
4129.43145.489
4228.57743.999
4327.77842.730
4426.92241.081
4526.08739.634
4625.19738.018
4724.30336.661
4823.68834.891
4923.06733.569
5022.33032.215
5121.63931.017
5221.08729.871
5320.39528.501
5419.83527.313
5519.33426.034
5618.88924.671
5718.15123.857
5817.55623.042
5916.90222.199
6016.38621.073
6115.91720.045
6215.52419.307
6314.98118.621
6414.48917.825
6514.03017.208
6613.54716.593
6713.14316.031
6812.66115.317
6912.18414.604
7011.74914.105
7111.40713.439
7210.88812.921
7310.50212.328
7410.06311.813
759.65511.258
769.27010.775
778.76910.263
788.4449.803
798.0399.374
807.7138.828
817.3828.333
826.9177.876
836.5257.375
846.1116.969
855.7806.627
865.4466.181
875.1075.738
884.7555.395
894.2734.996
903.8824.572
913.5224.192
922.9853.765
932.6383.334
942.1472.842
951.7652.512
961.3242.154
970.7901.675
980.1691.304
990.0000.919


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence