Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108996.684
204859.489
303111.439
402021.358
501376.573
60904.803
70607.864
80381.949
90198.803

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124905.241
219476.077
317372.146
415694.969
514434.810
612806.143
711689.126
810668.857
99697.159
108996.684
118436.421
127842.773
137404.479
146975.430
156525.850
166185.890
175795.296
185415.669
195098.914
204859.489
214634.563
224383.629
234227.639
243993.588
253855.160
263737.587
273558.459
283421.515
293274.637
303111.439
312970.802
322827.579
332721.032
342623.334
352484.256
362381.805
372279.537
382189.138
392114.892
402021.358
411933.334
421871.153
431818.111
441749.126
451688.474
461620.722
471563.731
481489.265
491433.617
501376.573
511326.023
521277.615
531219.709
541169.463
551115.337
561057.561
571023.045
58988.448
59952.672
60904.803
61861.109
62829.700
63800.467
64766.588
65740.306
66714.053
67690.084
68659.607
69629.197
70607.864
71579.431
72557.257
73531.914
74509.868
75486.081
76465.402
77443.464
78423.749
79405.352
80381.949
81360.665
82341.048
83319.508
84302.054
85287.350
86268.164
87249.108
88234.292
89217.123
90198.803
91182.423
92163.967
93145.328
94124.046
95109.735
9694.222
9773.425
9857.254
9940.475


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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