Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


Return to catchment list
Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10106.97792.078
2076.28958.286
3060.03342.761
4048.74931.706
5039.75224.146
6032.07117.717
7025.64312.977
8018.9238.717
9012.3254.441

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1224.884280.596
2192.133197.918
3171.002172.182
4151.751153.648
5138.296140.720
6130.692125.095
7122.639114.978
8116.466106.089
9110.82397.878
10106.97792.078
11102.56987.493
1298.84782.672
1395.35279.126
1492.04475.658
1589.42472.018
1686.01469.255
1783.50766.063
1881.25862.935
1978.23460.298
2076.28958.286
2174.32556.378
2272.11054.225
2370.60852.872
2468.92050.819
2566.94749.591
2665.57448.538
2764.13746.916
2862.95145.661
2961.62444.298
3060.03342.761
3158.53041.417
3257.58140.028
3356.31238.979
3455.17238.006
3553.72236.599
3652.80235.545
3751.81134.478
3850.87933.521
3949.77932.724
4048.74931.706
4147.56830.733
4246.30130.035
4345.38729.434
4444.43828.642
4543.58327.936
4642.87427.137
4741.97526.454
4841.20625.549
4940.58924.861
5039.75224.146
5138.69023.502
5237.74422.877
5337.09822.118
5436.32321.448
5535.44020.714
5634.72019.915
5733.97819.429
5833.25918.936
5932.61918.420
6032.07117.717
6131.48717.062
6230.79216.584
6330.05716.132
6429.43115.601
6528.65915.182
6627.83414.758
6727.13014.366
6826.57913.859
6926.17713.344
7025.64312.977
7125.08512.480
7224.43112.086
7323.73511.628
7423.10911.222
7522.26810.777
7621.59510.383
7720.8649.957
7820.3329.568
7919.6679.198
8018.9238.717
8118.1438.270
8217.4507.849
8316.7377.375
8415.9926.982
8515.4896.644
8614.9026.192
8714.3205.731
8813.6905.363
8913.0094.924
9012.3254.441
9111.6553.994
9210.9773.471
939.9362.918
948.9592.252
957.9161.778
966.9271.237
975.7990.451
984.4360.000
992.6340.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence