Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim



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Exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10355.837223.678
20273.120127.657
30216.51486.470
40177.46959.531
50145.13942.773
60119.07229.851
7095.41721.167
8072.73014.199
9050.5478.101

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1699.163639.390
2598.070488.885
3521.290432.898
4484.653388.727
5450.269357.300
6423.679315.679
7403.977288.023
8389.132263.461
9373.869240.247
10355.837223.678
11346.183210.501
12337.284196.558
13328.795186.401
14320.405176.584
15310.682166.208
16300.867158.276
17294.766149.353
18287.567140.634
19279.604133.265
20273.120127.657
21266.367122.400
22261.074116.734
23253.425112.886
24247.727107.442
25242.595104.128
26236.968101.335
27231.73997.185
28225.65793.978
29221.20690.347
30216.51486.470
31212.48783.029
32207.78279.636
33203.48177.028
34198.72874.518
35194.83871.168
36190.73868.568
37186.61566.041
38182.67363.744
39179.87561.899
40177.46959.531
41174.17757.302
42170.89455.688
43167.46254.353
44163.83752.555
45160.21850.973
46157.20549.241
47154.10347.704
48150.69745.747
49147.31744.301
50145.13942.773
51142.05241.416
52139.83640.087
53137.15438.567
54134.31337.148
55132.25135.744
56129.37234.087
57127.25933.131
58123.74232.182
59121.54631.160
60119.07229.851
61116.51828.578
62114.22527.670
63112.49526.838
64109.82225.838
65107.21125.074
66105.29724.308
67102.26523.605
68100.56522.707
6998.59621.804
7095.41721.167
7193.35120.314
7291.25319.644
7388.95418.874
7486.50518.199
7584.49317.467
7682.07416.827
7779.44416.143
7877.17215.524
7974.91614.943
8072.73014.199
8170.99613.516
8268.42812.882
8365.97412.179
8464.03811.605
8561.72011.118
8659.35810.477
8757.5099.834
8855.4139.329
8952.8848.739
9050.5478.101
9148.4497.524
9245.8266.865
9343.1466.189
9440.2935.401
9536.7454.861
9633.1404.265
9729.8923.442
9825.6592.779
9918.9402.063


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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