Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile18.54510.778
Median33.39324.146
Mean44.51440.600
75% Quartile56.93649.576
Interquartile Range38.39238.798

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1194.072280.596
2165.409197.918
3147.348172.182
4129.629153.648
5119.431140.720
6112.018125.095
7104.599114.978
898.762106.089
995.46797.878
1091.22992.078
1187.94687.493
1284.70182.672
1380.95779.126
1478.55275.658
1575.82072.018
1673.45869.255
1770.95166.063
1868.87962.935
1966.72360.298
2065.16258.286
2163.25956.378
2261.31454.225
2359.35552.872
2458.21950.819
2556.94149.591
2655.73748.538
2754.55746.916
2853.51645.661
2952.31644.298
3050.98642.761
3149.72941.417
3248.75140.028
3347.61338.979
3446.52838.006
3545.41836.599
3644.38135.545
3743.55334.478
3842.72033.521
3941.81032.724
4041.02631.706
4140.09930.733
4239.18030.035
4338.32429.434
4437.40028.642
4536.79227.936
4635.96227.137
4735.37626.454
4834.73025.549
4934.02624.861
5033.39324.146
5132.59023.502
5231.83222.877
5331.00922.118
5430.23821.448
5529.73820.714
5629.12019.915
5728.62519.429
5827.96118.936
5927.30918.420
6026.70217.717
6126.18917.062
6225.64216.584
6324.96916.132
6424.40815.601
6523.86215.182
6623.27614.758
6722.62314.366
6822.21613.859
6921.65813.344
7021.11412.977
7120.62012.480
7220.15312.086
7319.64011.628
7419.13311.222
7518.53210.777
7617.81610.383
7717.2599.957
7816.6709.568
7916.0939.198
8015.3948.717
8114.9128.270
8214.4097.849
8313.7407.375
8413.1806.982
8512.7576.644
8612.1666.192
8711.5875.731
8811.1445.363
8910.5364.924
909.8344.441
919.1563.994
928.5833.471
937.8362.918
946.9172.252
955.9921.778
965.0481.237
974.1570.451
982.7950.000
991.4500.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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