Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile221.163
Median577.229
Mean1055.834
75% Quartile1420.718
Interquartile Range1199.556

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15792.033
24800.819
34410.325
44094.349
53853.055
63534.371
73309.890
83099.366
92892.781
102739.397
112613.561
122476.732
132373.127
142269.350
152157.861
162071.525
171969.989
181868.718
191782.122
201715.323
211651.460
221578.890
231533.047
241463.173
251421.211
261385.190
271329.622
281286.566
291239.821
301187.181
311141.211
321093.808
331058.150
341025.156
35977.686
36942.335
37906.719
38874.960
39848.680
40815.316
41783.655
42761.133
43741.819
44716.555
45694.208
46669.094
47647.843
48619.900
49598.887
50577.229
51557.935
52539.368
53517.038
54497.556
55476.455
56453.799
57440.197
58426.512
59412.306
60393.208
61375.684
62363.031
63351.212
64337.462
65326.754
66316.023
67306.192
68293.647
69281.076
70272.226
71260.387
72251.118
73240.486
74231.202
75221.147
76212.371
77203.027
78194.597
79186.701
80176.615
81167.400
82158.868
83149.454
84141.790
85135.307
86126.809
87118.321
88111.689
89103.962
9095.666
9188.200
9279.726
9371.095
9461.139
9554.372
9646.963
9736.884
9828.902
9920.438


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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