Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile45.19546.442
Median123.962149.910
Mean259.143359.416
75% Quartile340.875456.584
Interquartile Range295.680410.142

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11588.3992369.949
21312.0131931.093
31155.8531759.597
41050.1331619.091
5965.3781515.440
6897.3731372.102
7819.5021272.125
8772.3631179.482
9717.4571088.053
10675.7051020.203
11643.900964.561
12608.156903.955
13584.209858.640
14556.252813.883
15527.437765.538
16505.807727.871
17479.425684.770
18453.077641.949
19438.225605.247
20419.112577.026
21401.290550.377
22383.927521.461
23369.022501.726
24352.574473.698
25341.103456.592
26325.714442.152
27311.435420.685
28298.753404.095
29288.505385.324
30275.211365.311
31265.090347.597
32255.271330.187
33243.957316.855
34234.042304.070
35222.278287.098
36214.084274.005
37205.714261.352
38197.404249.923
39191.122240.800
40184.999229.164
41178.647218.294
42171.352210.479
43163.888204.050
44157.085195.448
45150.617187.933
46143.974179.768
47138.621172.581
48134.019163.508
49129.452156.870
50123.962149.910
51118.892143.784
52114.922137.832
53111.213131.093
54107.619124.867
55104.242118.765
56100.059111.650
5795.821107.588
5892.018103.590
5989.57099.321
6086.40393.905
6183.46388.706
6279.96185.038
6376.28881.708
6473.54077.741
6571.79874.745
6669.15671.764
6765.53069.052
6863.10465.620
6959.45762.212
7057.09159.833
7154.67856.676
7252.46454.226
7350.11751.439
7447.89149.027
7545.15646.438
7642.16944.199
7739.66741.835
7837.43439.723
7935.14537.762
8032.92535.282
8130.62633.042
8228.57630.990
8326.23328.754
8424.41526.954
8522.64525.447
8621.13223.494
8718.99021.570
8817.22420.086
8915.15618.380
9013.32816.577
9111.79614.981
929.91913.202
937.57211.430
945.8669.438
954.3998.121
962.8236.715
971.2014.874
980.0003.483
990.0002.088


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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