Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile36.57217.468
Median64.13842.773
Mean86.49788.402
75% Quartile112.343104.127
Interquartile Range75.77186.658

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1382.267639.390
2304.089488.885
3272.078432.898
4250.775388.727
5231.432357.300
6212.758315.679
7201.886288.023
8192.149263.461
9181.956240.247
10175.150223.678
11168.859210.501
12163.060196.558
13157.741186.401
14152.880176.584
15148.157166.208
16143.860158.276
17139.987149.353
18135.869140.634
19131.718133.265
20128.206127.657
21124.507122.400
22121.099116.734
23118.384112.886
24115.398107.442
25112.346104.128
26109.547101.335
27106.62397.185
28103.61193.978
29101.52790.347
3099.66986.470
3197.29883.029
3294.90279.636
3393.17477.028
3490.98574.518
3588.67471.168
3686.90968.568
3784.93366.041
3883.19563.744
3981.56661.899
4079.72459.531
4178.30457.302
4276.63555.688
4374.74454.353
4473.30452.555
4571.80450.973
4669.97649.241
4768.66747.704
4867.11745.747
4965.76944.301
5064.13842.773
5162.76541.416
5261.45740.087
5360.32738.567
5459.18037.148
5557.97835.744
5656.95034.087
5755.68533.131
5854.34232.182
5953.17331.160
6052.20329.851
6150.89928.578
6249.75327.670
6348.64126.838
6447.38325.838
6546.36425.074
6645.52424.308
6744.59523.605
6843.63222.707
6942.40921.804
7041.46621.167
7140.62620.314
7239.62219.644
7338.70318.874
7437.50718.199
7536.57017.467
7635.27016.827
7734.30716.143
7833.33115.524
7932.23914.943
8030.94614.199
8130.02013.516
8228.91512.882
8327.71312.179
8426.76111.605
8525.82711.118
8624.89310.477
8723.9809.834
8823.0319.329
8922.0728.739
9020.9478.101
9119.6557.524
9218.5516.865
9317.6376.189
9416.3205.401
9514.6824.861
9613.3444.265
9711.8373.442
989.6262.779
997.1202.063


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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