Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile27.59913.430
Median47.92431.464
Mean62.69455.889
75% Quartile80.40070.900
Interquartile Range52.80157.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1272.012334.930
2220.005266.571
3193.116240.674
4176.097219.940
5163.905204.973
6153.876184.798
7144.305171.120
8137.420158.753
9131.435146.845
10125.417138.198
11120.790131.224
12114.785123.745
13111.490118.226
14108.753112.833
15105.829107.066
16102.576102.610
17100.04697.543
1897.21392.535
1994.13488.258
2092.04184.973
2189.56481.871
2287.25078.501
2384.37776.196
2482.50672.913
2580.41070.901
2678.85769.197
2776.44366.651
2874.54364.673
2973.12362.420
3071.62160.000
3170.04257.838
3268.55255.694
3367.19954.037
3465.91852.435
3564.43150.285
3662.89848.608
3761.62846.969
3860.27445.472
3958.90544.266
4057.82242.710
4156.63541.238
4255.46440.168
4354.54339.281
4453.67738.081
4552.63037.021
4651.58235.856
4750.73234.819
4849.69233.492
4948.85332.508
5047.92431.464
5146.65630.533
5245.68529.618
5344.73628.568
5443.78927.584
5542.86226.606
5642.00425.446
5741.21624.775
5840.12424.106
5939.44023.384
6038.71122.454
6137.79121.547
6236.92620.898
6336.07020.300
6435.50019.580
6534.78419.028
6634.12818.473
6733.38417.962
6832.68417.306
6932.03016.645
7031.29716.177
7130.69915.548
7229.97615.052
7329.19514.480
7428.38813.977
7527.58213.429
7626.99612.948
7726.23512.433
7825.25111.965
7924.53211.523
8023.96410.955
8123.27510.432
8222.4999.944
8321.5969.401
8420.7528.954
8519.9618.574
8619.1718.071
8718.1427.564
8817.5007.163
8916.6746.692
9015.9246.180
9114.9655.714
9214.0655.177
9312.9314.621
9411.9663.967
9510.9803.513
969.4603.007
977.9072.297
986.7621.714
994.5831.069


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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