Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile19.64211.258
Median42.41732.215
Mean76.24895.808
75% Quartile91.78392.683
Interquartile Range72.14181.424

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1504.2581024.939
2399.324700.380
3339.214587.897
4297.580505.060
5262.284447.106
6238.767377.777
7220.072333.813
8202.302296.108
9189.377262.261
10176.506239.038
11168.319221.131
12157.419202.767
13149.995189.590
14142.118176.989
15135.708164.083
16129.385154.515
17122.596143.716
18118.165133.407
19114.074124.938
20109.752118.612
21106.081112.727
22102.003106.222
2398.998102.210
2495.05196.234
2591.83792.724
2687.68989.755
2784.84185.255
2882.54581.832
2979.60478.178
3076.53574.136
3174.71670.670
3272.00667.153
3370.03264.546
3467.11762.163
3565.12358.779
3662.95656.295
3761.29053.821
3859.78751.639
3958.15249.850
4056.64447.601
4155.25045.489
4253.93343.999
4352.27742.730
4450.41041.081
4548.94539.634
4647.37638.018
4746.06636.661
4844.83134.891
4943.75333.569
5042.41732.215
5141.11031.017
5240.18329.871
5339.12828.501
5437.87627.313
5536.76726.034
5635.85824.671
5734.72723.857
5833.80323.042
5932.74722.199
6031.88021.073
6130.91520.045
6230.06219.307
6329.17418.621
6428.31017.825
6527.47917.208
6626.66216.593
6725.79816.031
6824.97415.317
6924.24614.604
7023.45814.105
7122.61013.439
7222.04512.921
7321.28112.328
7420.45711.813
7519.63411.258
7618.80210.775
7717.95710.263
7817.0929.803
7916.3729.374
8015.6758.828
8114.9728.333
8214.2867.876
8313.6837.375
8413.1606.969
8512.4456.627
8611.4976.181
8710.8395.738
8810.3335.395
899.7484.996
908.9244.572
918.2064.192
927.3013.765
936.5733.334
945.8002.842
954.7892.512
963.9622.154
973.0721.675
981.9701.304
990.9430.919


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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