Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim



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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile135.62324.201
Median248.61874.367
Mean337.128183.469
75% Quartile447.403222.067
Interquartile Range311.780197.865

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11497.6001296.530
21167.3791038.627
31044.194938.330
4952.982856.529
5885.017796.486
6834.280714.026
7790.995657.022
8753.792604.677
9719.774553.558
10682.475516.027
11657.166485.537
12637.785452.649
13618.439428.295
14597.568404.449
15579.707378.934
16560.558359.234
17545.307336.890
18532.604314.900
19519.952296.220
20506.560281.960
21492.722268.576
22480.223254.140
23471.037244.339
24457.935230.487
25447.471222.071
26436.907214.988
27424.829204.494
28412.587196.411
29401.845187.293
30391.906177.601
31380.628169.046
32373.595160.657
33364.191154.246
34357.536148.106
35348.549139.967
36340.028133.697
37332.033127.642
38323.879122.178
39318.014117.817
40311.223112.258
41303.294107.065
42297.922103.332
43289.605100.261
44283.77996.152
45278.04792.561
46270.13688.658
47264.61885.221
48259.75880.880
49254.43077.701
50248.61874.367
51243.57171.430
52238.48268.574
53232.67465.337
54228.84462.344
55225.35459.407
56219.22855.978
57212.98154.019
58208.11652.087
59203.37850.024
60199.42947.402
61195.42444.882
62191.06643.101
63185.45641.483
64181.23939.552
65176.68438.092
66171.41736.638
67167.36835.314
68163.78333.635
69158.92331.966
70155.65830.799
71152.02929.248
72147.93928.042
73144.85626.669
74140.34225.479
75135.60424.199
76129.43923.091
77126.45621.919
78122.87220.869
79119.15619.894
80114.64018.658
81110.29717.538
82106.22416.512
83102.47915.389
8497.94614.484
8594.75613.725
8689.72712.739
8786.42611.765
8881.87111.012
8977.75210.144
9073.6499.224
9168.8248.406
9264.5247.492
9359.8586.578
9456.3435.545
9551.3364.858
9645.7214.121
9738.0643.149
9830.2502.408
9922.0661.656


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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