Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim



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Probability distribution for Burdekin River at Sellheim ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile38.97813.430
Median65.78931.464
Mean84.61955.889
75% Quartile109.16670.900
Interquartile Range70.18857.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1347.137334.930
2284.564266.571
3253.356240.674
4229.489219.940
5214.642204.973
6202.155184.798
7191.510171.120
8183.322158.753
9173.931146.845
10167.069138.198
11160.356131.224
12154.346123.745
13149.871118.226
14146.102112.833
15141.668107.066
16137.284102.610
17134.39297.543
18130.68292.535
19126.19488.258
20123.29684.973
21119.61881.871
22117.20478.501
23114.15976.196
24111.37372.913
25109.19670.901
26107.00369.197
27104.54366.651
28101.82164.673
2999.41862.420
3097.20860.000
3195.26557.838
3293.49955.694
3391.48954.037
3489.59652.435
3587.49550.285
3685.68648.608
3784.01246.969
3882.19845.472
3980.67444.266
4079.08342.710
4177.20541.238
4276.00940.168
4374.63839.281
4473.30738.081
4571.99937.021
4670.92735.856
4769.46834.819
4868.35533.492
4967.03332.508
5065.78931.464
5164.60530.533
5263.20629.618
5362.07728.568
5460.81527.584
5559.61826.606
5658.31225.446
5756.85124.775
5855.56924.106
5954.43623.384
6053.40222.454
6152.47821.547
6251.14520.898
6349.97320.300
6449.07719.580
6548.12419.028
6647.26418.473
6746.48517.962
6845.40017.306
6944.49516.645
7043.53416.177
7142.76115.548
7241.82115.052
7340.87014.480
7439.81813.977
7538.97713.429
7637.73312.948
7736.65712.433
7835.67911.965
7934.72211.523
8033.56310.955
8132.45010.432
8231.5179.944
8330.5299.401
8429.4288.954
8528.2248.574
8626.9018.071
8725.9767.564
8825.1367.163
8923.8176.692
9022.8596.180
9121.2415.714
9220.3805.177
9318.8564.621
9417.5743.967
9516.1513.513
9614.3293.007
9712.5192.297
9810.2131.714
997.6881.069


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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