Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2003) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2000) (GL)
Sep19.36139.42447.5780.72523.38614.141
Sep-Oct29.71372.46384.3570.72532.65623.932
Sep-Nov96.15596.986112.5380.72566.2841063.143

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10180.570239.038
20108.599118.612
3075.03874.136
4055.28747.601
5040.58632.215
6030.11521.073
7021.83414.105
8014.7228.828
907.7124.572

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1524.1401024.939
2421.812700.380
3352.896587.897
4308.233505.060
5275.015447.106
6246.210377.777
7225.557333.813
8206.232296.108
9193.213262.261
10180.570239.038
11168.198221.131
12159.158202.767
13150.676189.590
14141.987176.989
15134.248164.083
16128.115154.515
17122.462143.716
18117.993133.407
19113.005124.938
20108.599118.612
21104.778112.727
22100.749106.222
2397.692102.210
2493.94796.234
2589.44192.724
2687.15989.755
2783.27485.255
2880.44081.832
2977.89378.178
3075.03874.136
3172.75270.670
3270.18267.153
3368.09864.546
3466.18862.163
3563.81558.779
3661.75656.295
3759.66453.821
3858.07551.639
3956.58349.850
4055.28747.601
4153.54545.489
4252.02443.999
4350.50042.730
4449.07941.081
4547.52739.634
4646.08538.018
4744.64036.661
4843.28534.891
4941.87533.569
5040.58632.215
5139.24831.017
5238.17529.871
5337.08628.501
5436.00427.313
5534.91626.034
5634.11924.671
5733.27423.857
5832.24023.042
5931.17022.199
6030.11521.073
6129.24120.045
6228.37319.307
6327.62918.621
6426.47117.825
6525.69817.208
6624.90116.593
6723.96616.031
6823.29315.317
6922.58114.604
7021.83414.105
7121.07513.439
7220.24612.921
7319.61112.328
7418.96411.813
7518.12811.258
7617.40910.775
7716.70410.263
7815.9449.803
7915.2539.374
8014.7228.828
8113.8738.333
8213.2167.876
8312.3267.375
8411.6126.969
8510.9826.627
8610.2676.181
879.7065.738
889.1485.395
898.3424.996
907.7124.572
917.0894.192
926.4713.765
935.6333.334
944.8892.842
954.0562.512
963.3562.154
972.5231.675
981.5481.304
990.2880.919


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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