Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct10.35233.03836.7783.2639.27032.141
Oct-Nov76.79457.56264.9604.35142.899277.351
Oct-Dec359.224198.93789.0735.076434.6053529.827

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10458.367900.572
20277.063441.315
30191.276272.783
40139.656173.211
50102.736116.059
6074.48375.091
7054.33449.742
8036.35530.759
9019.55215.658

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11632.4673720.420
21167.6452597.277
3976.2602196.132
4822.5571895.601
5719.2561682.592
6653.6831424.803
7591.9511259.756
8542.6981117.344
9500.209988.932
10458.367900.572
11433.742832.330
12406.464762.281
13387.067711.992
14369.408663.889
15350.195614.627
16331.499578.119
17315.082536.931
18304.931497.638
19290.839465.385
20277.063441.315
21266.976418.935
22253.755394.225
23245.342378.997
24235.409356.333
25227.124343.031
26219.240331.790
27212.977314.764
28204.475301.828
29197.900288.028
30191.276272.783
31185.000259.719
32178.050246.484
33172.229236.682
34166.145227.726
35160.506215.030
36155.395205.717
37151.185196.453
38147.218188.292
39143.543181.608
40139.656173.211
41135.677165.334
42131.050159.783
43127.311155.058
44124.083148.925
45119.576143.545
46115.956137.549
47112.572132.516
48109.101125.955
49105.330121.063
50102.736116.059
5199.135111.633
5296.399107.403
5393.422102.353
5490.44297.979
5587.41893.278
5684.53888.271
5782.17885.285
5879.14882.297
5976.82479.211
6074.48375.091
6172.24071.337
6269.67468.643
6367.98166.140
6465.61663.243
6563.62261.000
6661.98058.762
6759.85656.721
6858.35854.130
6956.59051.549
7054.33449.742
7152.27047.336
7250.20245.463
7348.51043.326
7446.63441.469
7544.90239.469
7643.06537.734
7741.48035.896
7839.88834.246
7938.03432.710
8036.35530.759
8134.22328.988
8232.70727.359
8331.39625.574
8429.85324.131
8528.03122.917
8626.39921.337
8724.90519.771
8823.20418.557
8921.42317.153
9019.55215.658
9117.91514.327
9216.46712.831
9314.22011.326
9412.4979.616
9510.8938.471
968.8857.236
977.2065.591
984.6924.323
992.2313.020


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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