Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


Return to catchment list
Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Nov66.44224.52328.1821.08833.62981.222
Nov-Dec348.872165.89852.2941.813425.335806.785
Nov-Jan1793.942762.375910.3543.6261819.68713739.277

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105328.528
202632.381
301499.902
40855.378
50517.140
60298.631
70176.662
8096.018
9040.769

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114051.234
211210.817
310099.918
49189.499
58517.952
67590.021
76944.039
86347.228
95760.974
105328.528
114976.144
124595.287
134312.994
144036.656
153741.393
163513.998
173257.028
183005.526
192793.300
202632.381
212482.352
222321.791
232213.607
242061.992
251970.668
261894.313
271782.078
281696.408
291600.635
301499.902
311411.957
321326.662
331262.123
341200.882
351120.576
361059.414
371000.982
38948.775
39907.498
40855.378
41807.229
42772.941
43744.942
44707.785
45675.611
46640.963
47610.739
48572.959
49545.585
50517.140
51492.322
52468.411
53441.579
54417.033
55393.203
56365.713
57350.169
58334.973
59318.872
60298.631
61279.404
62265.964
63253.850
64239.540
65228.819
66218.228
67208.665
68196.655
69184.843
70176.662
71165.898
72157.617
73148.278
74140.267
75131.743
76124.438
77116.799
78110.034
79103.809
8096.018
8189.060
8282.759
8375.970
8470.573
8566.101
8660.372
8754.807
8850.572
8945.767
9040.769
9136.421
9231.665
9327.029
9421.960
9518.698
9615.310
9711.038
987.964
995.052


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence