Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Feb1646.8041410.388150.5685.0762720.9436546.018
Feb-Mar2600.1705185.489318.15716.6803963.52510257.954
Feb-Apr2831.8295408.084403.42095.7264301.90910669.505

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105062.9425829.766
203741.9683791.209
302835.6422682.277
402216.1771866.494
501675.6681330.972
601268.122911.703
70894.179631.685
80593.939411.180
90311.378224.373

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19271.75811614.043
28066.7179743.266
37243.2779011.917
46781.5638412.181
56428.1737969.143
66049.8307354.971
75787.7276924.929
85478.8656524.578
95250.5066126.982
105062.9425829.766
114917.4115584.261
124732.5645314.615
134591.5055111.176
144451.8534908.415
154310.2004687.028
164180.5694512.563
174061.1454310.480
183955.6434106.745
193844.2793929.438
203741.9683791.209
213620.2633659.010
223523.8743513.554
233437.3733412.982
243355.4383268.176
253268.6173178.578
263159.4883102.175
273063.4862987.217
283004.4312897.178
292909.0512793.974
302835.6422682.277
312766.8352581.886
322687.6102481.739
332629.2102403.998
342556.9482328.552
352496.9832226.962
362429.2782147.415
372370.4972069.525
382323.7521998.263
392263.5461940.732
402216.1771866.494
412164.3761796.229
422100.9811745.142
432043.1011702.744
441987.2101645.480
451926.1201594.929
461873.9481539.429
471832.0111490.064
481778.7541427.029
491723.4231380.377
501675.6681330.972
511635.4671287.047
521592.3341243.961
531548.0421194.663
541507.8891148.626
551471.1501103.015
561426.6521049.196
571388.6201018.150
581340.960987.347
591305.059954.189
601268.122911.703
611236.162870.455
621192.841841.067
631140.442814.162
641108.552781.839
651071.332757.216
661038.396732.528
671001.004709.906
68967.847681.024
69933.372652.075
70894.179631.685
71859.104604.403
72828.221583.040
73802.293558.527
74772.559537.119
75741.057513.927
76710.553493.684
77681.071472.126
78652.690452.675
79620.788434.456
80593.939411.180
81568.446389.912
82537.804370.219
83510.601348.493
84478.786330.805
85445.735315.842
86419.593296.230
87392.998276.643
88365.608261.338
89338.427243.511
90311.378224.373
91285.515207.152
92259.278187.610
93228.433167.714
94194.120144.767
95160.456129.179
96129.660112.117
9797.54288.920
9855.36770.563
993.45751.116


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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