Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim( )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Feb1646.8041410.388150.5685.0762720.9436546.018
Feb-Mar2600.1705185.489318.15716.6803963.52510257.954
Feb-Apr2831.8295408.084403.42095.7264301.90910669.505

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105001.1885829.766
203672.7783791.209
302777.9472682.277
402170.5961866.494
501635.7981330.972
601235.309911.703
70869.438631.685
80574.963411.180
90301.593224.373

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19185.20011614.043
27974.2809743.266
37178.2779011.917
46701.1808412.181
56365.5807969.143
65973.6847354.971
75700.0106924.929
85411.6596524.578
95176.8646126.982
105001.1885829.766
114845.6845584.261
124664.5775314.615
134515.1285111.176
144387.9214908.415
154241.8564687.028
164118.9244512.563
173998.9094310.480
183893.9974106.745
193778.8473929.438
203672.7783791.209
213559.2523659.010
223453.8103513.554
233373.0443412.982
243294.1453268.176
253204.4503178.578
263096.1933102.175
273013.1642987.217
282942.7042897.178
292854.7642793.974
302777.9472682.277
312702.9202581.886
322633.9432481.739
332569.9282403.998
342507.6012328.552
352439.8942226.962
362380.6712147.415
372317.6802069.525
382267.4471998.263
392220.8991940.732
402170.5961866.494
412113.4751796.229
422048.9701745.142
431996.8151702.744
441936.6231645.480
451888.1581594.929
461828.0821539.429
471793.3731490.064
481738.5611427.029
491683.7601380.377
501635.7981330.972
511598.4951287.047
521552.8961243.961
531509.8711194.663
541475.1001148.626
551432.4351103.015
561392.4171049.196
571357.1961018.150
581309.473987.347
591271.492954.189
601235.309911.703
611201.323870.455
621166.534841.067
631110.067814.162
641079.210781.839
651043.563757.216
661010.295732.528
67972.793709.906
68947.751681.024
69906.694652.075
70869.438631.685
71835.274604.403
72805.015583.040
73776.276558.527
74752.775537.119
75718.444513.927
76689.713493.684
77663.141472.126
78631.853452.675
79603.208434.456
80574.963411.180
81553.135389.912
82521.421370.219
83494.418348.493
84464.217330.805
85433.009315.842
86408.325296.230
87380.128276.643
88353.645261.338
89327.426243.511
90301.593224.373
91273.363207.152
92248.492187.610
93222.298167.714
94187.404144.767
95153.320129.179
96124.480112.117
9793.19288.920
9851.25170.563
992.43651.116


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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