Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1995) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
May107.21394.49142.7340.36368.2181157.419
May-Jun160.815196.43077.9181.813122.3321248.069
May-Jul193.688602.265107.8281.813195.4651275.264

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10281.040516.027
20195.404281.960
30146.210177.601
40113.388112.258
5089.69974.367
6069.36047.402
7054.99230.799
8038.85318.658
9023.4779.224

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1695.8111296.530
2570.2791038.627
3486.516938.330
4428.813856.529
5386.342796.486
6366.888714.026
7336.733657.022
8314.468604.677
9294.923553.558
10281.040516.027
11269.491485.537
12257.344452.649
13249.005428.295
14238.210404.449
15228.673378.934
16221.098359.234
17214.514336.890
18208.746314.900
19203.249296.220
20195.404281.960
21189.961268.576
22184.989254.140
23180.387244.339
24175.280230.487
25170.115222.071
26164.241214.988
27159.855204.494
28155.096196.411
29151.065187.293
30146.210177.601
31142.615169.046
32138.773160.657
33135.080154.246
34132.239148.106
35128.626139.967
36125.413133.697
37122.248127.642
38119.303122.178
39115.879117.817
40113.388112.258
41110.830107.065
42108.302103.332
43105.619100.261
44102.57096.152
45100.38592.561
4698.58488.658
4796.22485.221
4893.82680.880
4991.82277.701
5089.69974.367
5187.87871.430
5285.87168.574
5383.52365.337
5481.57862.344
5579.62159.407
5677.39155.978
5775.68154.019
5873.55252.087
5971.34450.024
6069.36047.402
6167.83844.882
6266.43143.101
6365.05041.483
6463.51139.552
6561.82738.092
6660.23836.638
6759.22735.314
6857.91633.635
6956.52731.966
7054.99230.799
7153.30529.248
7252.06328.042
7350.15426.669
7448.77225.479
7546.94224.199
7645.01023.091
7743.76021.919
7842.61020.869
7940.51019.894
8038.85318.658
8137.41217.538
8235.99116.512
8334.32515.389
8432.80414.484
8531.17013.725
8629.80012.739
8728.22911.765
8826.87511.012
8925.16610.144
9023.4779.224
9121.9698.406
9220.8787.492
9318.8456.578
9417.2465.545
9515.6974.858
9612.8144.121
9710.8363.149
988.3512.408
994.7321.656


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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