Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct10.95336.77810.7303.26312.62132.141
Oct-Nov76.54464.96028.9454.35148.960277.351
Oct-Dec353.23489.07351.0865.076443.0053529.827

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10619.242900.572
20373.415441.315
30256.789272.783
40188.596173.211
50138.834116.059
60101.93175.091
7074.45249.742
8050.12930.759
9027.87115.658

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11990.6683720.420
21499.4482597.277
31232.0642196.132
41093.7951895.601
5953.1691682.592
6858.5591424.803
7782.6131259.756
8726.0151117.344
9666.325988.932
10619.242900.572
11578.798832.330
12545.382762.281
13520.615711.992
14494.506663.889
15472.371614.627
16442.779578.119
17427.101536.931
18404.854497.638
19388.503465.385
20373.415441.315
21359.420418.935
22345.145394.225
23331.601378.997
24318.834356.333
25308.810343.031
26297.816331.790
27286.772314.764
28275.268301.828
29265.478288.028
30256.789272.783
31248.122259.719
32239.344246.484
33232.798236.682
34226.197227.726
35219.382215.030
36212.064205.717
37204.707196.453
38197.988188.292
39193.054181.608
40188.596173.211
41183.904165.334
42178.368159.783
43172.040155.058
44166.375148.925
45161.762143.545
46156.046137.549
47151.903132.516
48147.698125.955
49142.448121.063
50138.834116.059
51135.781111.633
52131.585107.403
53127.655102.353
54123.93697.979
55120.26193.278
56116.55488.271
57112.71085.285
58108.91182.297
59104.57679.211
60101.93175.091
6198.88671.337
6295.62968.643
6393.40266.140
6490.44963.243
6587.59461.000
6684.79358.762
6782.35556.721
6879.55754.130
6976.85551.549
7074.45249.742
7171.95047.336
7268.83145.463
7366.68443.326
7464.11641.469
7561.80139.469
7659.47437.734
7757.62235.896
7855.20434.246
7952.63832.710
8050.12930.759
8147.95028.988
8245.46227.359
8343.70925.574
8441.67324.131
8539.33422.917
8637.27521.337
8734.43319.771
8832.14318.557
8929.72417.153
9027.87115.658
9125.41914.327
9223.26112.831
9320.67611.326
9418.2029.616
9515.9868.471
9613.2677.236
9710.6545.591
987.7374.323
994.2533.020


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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