Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Product list for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Feb1613.554150.568886.7725.0762713.6646546.018
Feb-Mar2549.062318.1571000.16616.6803911.73410257.954
Feb-Apr2777.394403.4201490.99095.7264258.34310669.505

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104135.7235829.766
202929.8203791.209
302148.5582682.277
401635.8541866.494
501224.7651330.972
60911.334911.703
70633.622631.685
80411.395411.180
90204.986224.373

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18079.27711614.043
26844.1279743.266
36141.1289011.917
45767.7878412.181
55418.0927969.143
64999.1877354.971
74754.0076924.929
84546.1646524.578
94301.1726126.982
104135.7235829.766
113942.9345584.261
123759.2285314.615
133647.4435111.176
143550.1394908.415
153451.5374687.028
163336.3574512.563
173205.5314310.480
183117.6294106.745
193019.6763929.438
202929.8203791.209
212841.4633659.010
222731.6063513.554
232653.8393412.982
242560.3543268.176
252482.7733178.578
262407.1593102.175
272337.5332987.217
282264.0982897.178
292203.7862793.974
302148.5582682.277
312084.5442581.886
322030.9172481.739
331981.5012403.998
341929.6802328.552
351867.1292226.962
361823.0712147.415
371771.6652069.525
381720.9981998.263
391674.4891940.732
401635.8541866.494
411586.5621796.229
421533.1621745.142
431491.8501702.744
441452.8751645.480
451413.2841594.929
461383.8831539.429
471346.2281490.064
481305.5631427.029
491267.8041380.377
501224.7651330.972
511187.3981287.047
521156.3251243.961
531125.6411194.663
541089.9901148.626
551062.6061103.015
561031.6531049.196
57998.8331018.150
58966.005987.347
59936.125954.189
60911.334911.703
61881.875870.455
62847.905841.067
63825.513814.162
64787.887781.839
65764.525757.216
66735.212732.528
67705.241709.906
68680.321681.024
69657.272652.075
70633.622631.685
71616.567604.403
72592.146583.040
73569.688558.527
74544.032537.119
75520.301513.927
76500.897493.684
77474.160472.126
78453.384452.675
79433.872434.456
80411.395411.180
81394.548389.912
82376.970370.219
83354.484348.493
84324.048330.805
85303.409315.842
86282.260296.230
87263.771276.643
88247.665261.338
89224.946243.511
90204.986224.373
91185.279207.152
92166.523187.610
93142.528167.714
94118.058144.767
9596.314129.179
9669.916112.117
9740.96188.920
9812.97870.563
990.00051.116


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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