Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burdekin River at Sellheim ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan1465.4175863.623425.5081.0881254.19912932.492
Jan-Feb3066.01317953.7692005.7026.1644014.99719478.509
Jan-Mar3855.810NA2314.77017.7674610.38623190.446

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108547.601
204931.880
303375.290
402344.686
501694.250
601184.945
70837.083
80553.035
90298.919

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125058.510
218911.000
316666.513
414916.104
513682.589
612064.568
710999.177
810059.165
99175.626
108547.601
118049.487
127523.505
137140.939
146771.545
156381.367
166083.239
175747.860
185420.095
195142.949
204931.880
214733.947
224520.425
234375.295
244169.767
254044.546
263938.897
273781.816
283660.299
293522.572
303375.290
313244.403
323115.151
333015.669
342919.794
352791.670
362692.072
372595.115
382506.861
392435.902
402344.686
412258.677
422196.320
432144.671
442075.040
452013.679
461946.406
471886.637
481810.383
491753.975
501694.250
511641.141
521589.026
531529.358
541473.581
551418.247
561352.839
571315.038
581277.476
591236.970
601184.945
611134.288
621098.096
631064.882
641024.869
65994.301
66963.571
67935.336
68899.177
69862.795
70837.083
71802.557
72775.419
73744.161
74716.750
75686.931
76660.793
77632.833
78607.492
79583.650
80553.035
81524.896
82498.691
83469.600
84445.767
85425.494
86398.756
87371.851
88350.676
89325.828
90298.919
91274.476
92246.448
93217.556
94183.726
95160.385
96134.449
9798.404
9869.084
9936.995


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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