Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1072.220118.993
2052.88078.576
3041.58459.228
4032.47545.262
5026.08535.664
6021.03027.497
7016.14021.489
8011.77916.108
907.07810.741

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1150.565288.962
2126.646225.400
3111.410202.384
4102.885184.713
595.759171.816
688.063155.588
782.593144.704
878.998134.899
975.484125.643
1072.220118.993
1170.134113.673
1267.512108.019
1365.051103.823
1463.03399.689
1561.23095.320
1659.10991.984
1757.32888.108
1855.89984.288
1954.42981.053
2052.88078.576
2151.57876.219
2250.27373.552
2349.01171.872
2447.81169.318
2546.89267.785
2645.40866.471
2744.56964.442
2843.57662.869
2942.56561.159
3041.58459.228
3140.38957.537
3239.49455.786
3338.44354.464
3437.54253.235
3536.67551.457
3635.63950.125
3734.64448.774
3834.01547.562
3933.37346.553
4032.47545.262
4131.88944.028
4231.11843.143
4330.46342.380
4429.70441.375
4529.09940.479
4628.43239.463
4727.91138.597
4827.24537.447
4926.55936.573
5026.08535.664
5125.58134.846
5225.03434.052
5324.52033.087
5424.01932.236
5523.54631.303
5623.06430.288
5722.49029.672
5821.99629.046
5921.41828.390
6021.03027.497
6120.55326.666
6220.14026.059
6319.55625.486
6419.06824.812
6518.60524.282
6618.08423.744
6717.63123.247
6817.19922.605
6916.59021.953
7016.14021.489
7115.67720.860
7215.32920.361
7314.82919.782
7414.45619.269
7513.93818.707
7613.49018.209
7713.07717.672
7812.64617.180
7912.28916.714
8011.77916.108
8111.26515.545
8210.84315.015
8310.44414.419
8410.05113.925
859.66313.501
869.16912.934
878.68012.356
888.12111.894
897.53811.346
907.07810.741
916.47510.183
925.9599.531
935.3758.843
944.9258.015
954.3367.427
963.8236.757
972.9385.787
982.1644.959
990.6063.998


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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