Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1058.64070.805
2045.27351.218
3037.58141.379
4031.63133.851
5027.22028.378
6022.96923.440
7019.14519.533
8015.27415.809
9011.16211.745

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1102.811159.978
290.021123.468
382.835111.515
475.619102.542
571.93796.350
668.45688.325
765.50083.062
862.50578.401
960.93373.982
1058.64070.805
1157.11568.255
1255.28465.527
1353.29463.515
1451.92461.546
1550.66659.435
1649.37257.797
1748.23055.925
1847.17654.063
1946.17752.459
2045.27351.218
2144.48650.037
2243.50848.744
2342.45547.853
2441.69846.572
2540.82945.780
2640.20445.105
2739.64444.088
2838.91743.290
2938.14342.374
3037.58141.379
3137.10140.480
3236.32339.578
3335.65838.873
3434.91338.186
3534.26837.253
3633.55936.515
3733.05735.787
3832.51335.114
3932.11634.566
4031.63133.851
4131.06033.168
4230.63032.665
4330.11832.244
4429.62331.670
4529.18031.158
4628.77130.588
4728.46930.076
4827.97129.412
4927.61528.913
5027.22028.378
5126.69927.895
5226.22527.415
5325.86526.857
5425.48026.327
5524.99125.794
5624.55725.151
5724.11424.774
5823.75724.395
5923.41523.980
6022.96923.440
6122.61122.904
6222.12022.515
6321.74822.153
6421.37721.711
6521.07721.369
6620.66621.020
6720.33120.696
6820.02820.274
6919.54719.843
7019.14519.533
7118.86519.112
7218.46518.775
7318.03218.381
7417.63318.030
7517.27317.642
7616.89317.297
7716.53816.921
7816.08616.574
7915.69516.242
8015.27415.809
8114.90015.401
8214.60115.014
8314.29814.575
8413.79914.207
8513.38513.888
8612.98213.458
8712.54813.014
8812.05412.656
8911.59112.225
9011.16211.745
9110.71911.294
9210.14910.759
939.58010.184
948.9579.476
958.4718.962
967.6348.362
976.6047.465
985.4866.666
993.9625.693


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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