Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


Return to catchment list
Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1066.020
2051.322
3043.478
4037.193
5032.426
6027.948
7024.254
8020.575
9016.330

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1124.461
2101.742
393.994
488.057
583.892
678.406
774.748
871.465
968.313
1066.020
1164.164
1262.160
1360.671
1459.203
1557.618
1656.379
1754.954
1853.526
1952.287
2051.322
2150.400
2249.385
2348.681
2447.664
2547.033
2646.493
2745.676
2845.032
2944.289
3043.478
3142.741
3241.999
3341.417
3440.846
3540.068
3639.449
3738.836
3838.267
3937.802
4037.193
4136.607
4236.175
4335.812
4435.316
4534.871
4634.374
4733.925
4833.342
4932.901
5032.426
5131.997
5231.568
5331.067
5430.590
5530.106
5629.522
5729.177
5828.829
5928.447
6027.948
6127.449
6227.086
6326.747
6426.331
6526.008
6625.677
6725.368
6824.966
6924.552
7024.254
7123.846
7223.518
7323.134
7422.790
7522.407
7622.065
7721.691
7821.345
7921.012
8020.575
8120.161
8219.766
8319.315
8418.935
8518.603
8618.154
8717.687
8817.307
8916.847
9016.330
9115.841
9215.254
9314.616
9413.820
9513.234
9612.539
9711.480
9810.513
999.299


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence