Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10182.029212.646
20141.220157.954
30114.207124.866
4093.72297.142
5077.88976.249
6063.88857.592
7051.34343.521
8037.83231.141
9024.22319.278

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1308.978358.644
2268.683311.745
3245.709293.384
4228.842278.303
5217.229267.141
6208.300251.621
7200.509240.709
8193.152230.505
9188.486220.313
10182.029212.646
11176.972206.276
12172.016199.232
13167.431193.880
14162.325188.507
15157.593182.592
16153.824177.890
17149.733172.391
18146.519166.784
19144.112161.846
20141.220157.954
21137.950154.193
22135.538150.007
23132.646147.082
24129.724142.821
25126.748140.153
26123.563137.858
27121.380134.367
28118.424131.600
29116.324128.390
30114.207124.866
31111.692121.652
32109.726118.397
33107.085115.836
34105.033113.320
35103.059109.881
36101.346107.144
3799.439104.426
3897.587101.903
3995.13499.840
4093.72297.142
4192.38694.548
4290.74392.638
4389.10691.035
4487.46688.845
4585.28386.888
4683.92884.710
4782.11982.748
4880.80680.206
4978.97578.297
5077.88976.249
5176.52174.404
5275.35072.571
5373.52070.447
5472.23968.434
5570.70166.411
5669.49563.987
5767.92162.569
5866.62961.147
5965.35759.600
6063.88857.592
6162.43455.614
6260.54254.186
6359.28552.864
6458.30851.259
6557.29150.023
6656.31448.771
6754.94547.612
6853.65146.118
6952.48944.601
7051.34343.521
7149.90342.061
7248.68540.905
7347.51739.564
7445.87238.380
7544.60337.083
7643.58135.938
7742.06834.706
7840.47233.581
7939.26232.517
8037.83231.141
8136.74429.867
8235.56428.672
8334.11827.336
8432.91526.234
8531.80625.291
8630.08724.039
8728.89522.770
8827.45021.764
8925.67520.576
9024.22319.278
9122.15318.091
9220.57516.716
9318.92215.286
9417.28413.591
9515.42812.407
9613.35611.077
9711.1889.200
988.2627.644
995.5605.902


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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