Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10538.610521.588
20477.806437.376
30431.284383.666
40393.730335.041
50359.767294.385
60326.950253.069
70288.594216.834
80245.703179.174
90190.829134.733

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1704.835740.150
2650.588670.131
3626.433642.713
4608.296620.179
5592.000603.486
6577.246580.247
7564.327563.877
8555.385548.537
9546.186533.176
10538.610521.588
11529.358511.933
12521.060501.224
13515.686493.059
14510.440484.838
15503.946475.751
16497.250468.497
17492.164459.978
18487.229451.243
19482.876443.506
20477.806437.376
21473.103431.423
22467.599424.760
23463.349420.078
24458.842413.217
25453.874408.895
26450.511405.159
27445.971399.445
28441.351394.885
29436.223389.559
30431.284383.666
31428.417378.244
32424.506372.706
33419.766368.311
34416.190363.959
35412.721357.954
36408.378353.125
37404.828348.280
38400.761343.739
39397.478339.992
40393.730335.041
41390.686330.228
42386.839326.644
43383.520323.614
44380.271319.434
45376.924315.657
46373.786311.409
47370.298307.537
48366.647302.455
49363.120298.587
50359.767294.385
51356.532290.552
52353.418286.697
53349.567282.164
54346.121277.805
55342.467273.357
56339.408267.930
57336.927264.706
58333.592261.434
59330.455257.827
60326.950253.069
61323.875248.292
62320.373244.786
63317.237241.498
64312.554237.441
65309.001234.269
66305.147231.013
67301.198227.959
68297.064223.958
69292.625219.824
70288.594216.834
71284.491212.725
72281.318209.416
73276.385205.513
74272.300202.007
75268.349198.098
76264.039194.586
77260.007190.737
78255.525187.161
79250.386183.717
80245.703179.174
81241.341174.873
82236.974170.752
83231.939166.036
84226.195162.057
85220.987158.583
86215.748153.869
87208.827148.964
88202.548144.980
89196.869140.155
90190.829134.733
91184.285129.613
92175.349123.491
93165.440116.866
94155.812108.643
95144.947102.634
96130.16895.579
97116.12684.985
9888.92575.512
9956.90463.957


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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