Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1077.185
2063.630
3056.001
4049.645
5044.653
6039.801
7035.662
8031.392
9026.241

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1124.669
2107.197
3100.979
496.114
592.646
688.004
784.860
882.003
979.226
1077.185
1175.519
1273.708
1372.351
1471.006
1569.543
1668.393
1767.062
1865.719
1964.547
2063.630
2162.749
2261.774
2361.095
2460.111
2559.497
2658.970
2758.170
2857.538
2956.805
3056.001
3155.269
3254.527
3353.943
3453.368
3552.582
3651.955
3751.330
3850.749
3950.272
4049.645
4149.041
4248.593
4348.216
4447.698
4547.233
4646.713
4746.240
4845.624
4945.157
5044.653
5144.194
5243.735
5343.198
5442.683
5542.161
5641.526
5741.150
5840.769
5940.351
6039.801
6139.251
6238.848
6338.471
6438.007
6537.645
6637.274
6736.926
6836.471
6936.002
7035.662
7135.197
7234.822
7334.380
7433.983
7533.540
7633.142
7732.706
7832.300
7931.909
8031.392
8130.902
8230.431
8329.891
8429.434
8529.033
8628.488
8727.917
8827.451
8926.883
9026.241
9125.628
9224.888
9324.077
9423.052
9522.289
9621.375
9719.959
9818.641
9916.946


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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