Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10345.426435.219
20300.567375.138
30263.890335.574
40237.157298.361
50211.027265.712
60184.264230.431
70154.914197.004
80118.084158.846
9069.190108.210

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1466.307586.522
2435.270538.419
3413.038519.517
4399.186503.946
5386.875492.385
6375.611476.247
7368.065464.844
8359.649454.128
9353.726443.364
10345.426435.219
11338.760428.414
12333.784420.845
13328.640415.059
14324.591409.217
15320.810402.741
16317.383397.556
17313.213391.449
18308.505385.165
19304.204379.579
20300.567375.138
21297.266370.812
22293.900365.956
23289.232362.533
24284.605357.500
25280.927354.319
26277.862351.563
27274.445347.335
28270.743343.950
29267.074339.982
30263.890335.574
31260.937331.502
32258.638327.324
33255.418323.995
34252.848320.687
35250.290316.101
36247.527312.395
37244.651308.660
38242.222305.143
39239.993302.228
40237.157298.361
41233.942294.580
42231.289291.752
43229.194289.351
44225.964286.025
45223.105283.005
46220.546279.591
47218.395276.463
48215.869272.332
49213.501269.169
50211.027265.712
51208.753262.540
52206.486259.331
53203.284255.533
54201.026251.853
55198.596248.071
56195.412243.417
57192.654240.630
58189.908237.786
59187.059234.629
60184.264230.431
61181.210226.175
62178.007223.025
63175.159220.049
64172.208216.349
65169.499213.431
66167.410210.415
67164.458207.565
68162.021203.800
69158.239199.871
70154.914197.004
71151.649193.028
72147.993189.796
73144.213185.947
74140.905182.454
75137.120178.520
76133.836174.949
77130.236170.994
78126.256167.281
79122.206163.667
80118.084158.846
81114.002154.220
82109.245149.732
83105.207144.530
84101.106140.083
8596.790136.159
8691.874130.772
8787.352125.090
8883.042120.422
8976.814114.706
9069.190108.210
9161.134102.014
9253.76694.545
9344.55586.420
9437.26176.346
9526.76069.049
9615.53260.636
971.58448.513
980.00038.439
990.00027.462


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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