Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jan 2011 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10483.798435.219
20435.867375.138
30402.908335.574
40374.202298.361
50349.022265.712
60322.186230.431
70291.293197.004
80260.195158.846
90212.523108.210

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1599.098586.522
2563.684538.419
3544.019519.517
4532.183503.946
5522.193492.385
6511.027476.247
7503.012464.844
8496.342454.128
9490.589443.364
10483.798435.219
11476.918428.414
12470.610420.845
13465.418415.059
14461.366409.217
15456.875402.741
16452.871397.556
17447.936391.449
18443.273385.165
19440.276379.579
20435.867375.138
21433.091370.812
22429.136365.956
23425.075362.533
24422.544357.500
25419.687354.319
26416.115351.563
27412.820347.335
28409.972343.950
29406.505339.982
30402.908335.574
31400.440331.502
32397.528327.324
33394.825323.995
34391.837320.687
35388.549316.101
36385.687312.395
37382.886308.660
38380.383305.143
39376.750302.228
40374.202298.361
41371.581294.580
42369.071291.752
43366.283289.351
44363.869286.025
45361.396283.005
46358.832279.591
47356.414276.463
48353.949272.332
49351.359269.169
50349.022265.712
51346.500262.540
52344.089259.331
53340.873255.533
54338.164251.853
55335.477248.071
56332.791243.417
57330.917240.630
58328.211237.786
59325.428234.629
60322.186230.431
61319.154226.175
62316.318223.025
63313.465220.049
64310.557216.349
65307.523213.431
66304.105210.415
67301.430207.565
68297.727203.800
69294.394199.871
70291.293197.004
71288.760193.028
72285.631189.796
73282.580185.947
74279.579182.454
75276.779178.520
76274.032174.949
77270.294170.994
78267.079167.281
79264.089163.667
80260.195158.846
81256.228154.220
82252.245149.732
83248.544144.530
84243.308140.083
85238.758136.159
86233.769130.772
87227.903125.090
88222.963120.422
89217.833114.706
90212.523108.210
91205.662102.014
92197.29194.545
93189.21286.420
94179.69476.346
95168.26969.049
96155.28060.636
97138.60448.513
98122.79238.439
9993.18527.462


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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