Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10445.875435.219
20399.387375.138
30366.180335.574
40336.697298.361
50311.482265.712
60284.493230.431
70255.087197.004
80223.360158.846
90176.115108.210

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1561.544586.522
2528.140538.419
3510.056519.517
4495.062503.946
5483.824492.385
6474.491476.247
7466.798464.844
8457.610454.128
9452.011443.364
10445.875435.219
11439.499428.414
12433.130420.845
13428.004415.059
14423.799409.217
15418.922402.741
16414.834397.556
17411.317391.449
18406.888385.165
19403.326379.579
20399.387375.138
21396.520370.812
22392.795365.956
23388.775362.533
24385.525357.500
25382.071354.319
26378.573351.563
27375.699347.335
28373.050343.950
29369.564339.982
30366.180335.574
31363.365331.502
32360.131327.324
33357.322323.995
34354.489320.687
35351.699316.101
36348.297312.395
37345.208308.660
38342.409305.143
39339.568302.228
40336.697298.361
41333.744294.580
42330.897291.752
43328.800289.351
44326.438286.025
45324.149283.005
46322.201279.591
47319.808276.463
48317.335272.332
49314.718269.169
50311.482265.712
51309.171262.540
52306.284259.331
53303.764255.533
54300.949251.853
55298.133248.071
56295.814243.417
57292.675240.630
58289.898237.786
59287.008234.629
60284.493230.431
61281.999226.175
62279.826223.025
63276.675220.049
64273.214216.349
65270.789213.431
66266.937210.415
67263.637207.565
68260.233203.800
69258.255199.871
70255.087197.004
71252.227193.028
72248.670189.796
73244.923185.947
74242.506182.454
75239.775178.520
76236.662174.949
77232.894170.994
78230.172167.281
79226.795163.667
80223.360158.846
81219.479154.220
82215.536149.732
83211.061144.530
84205.830140.083
85201.893136.159
86198.021130.772
87193.121125.090
88187.337120.422
89182.299114.706
90176.115108.210
91168.749102.014
92159.64394.545
93153.42986.420
94143.95676.346
95132.26269.049
96116.84060.636
97103.03548.513
9889.15438.439
9962.59427.462


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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