Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10383.976435.219
20339.767375.138
30306.557335.574
40276.630298.361
50251.539265.712
60224.910230.431
70195.812197.004
80162.056158.846
90115.887108.210

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1503.421586.522
2471.254538.419
3450.181519.517
4435.400503.946
5423.725492.385
6413.527476.247
7404.139464.844
8396.412454.128
9389.205443.364
10383.976435.219
11378.929428.414
12373.737420.845
13369.092415.059
14364.223409.217
15359.925402.741
16355.737397.556
17351.831391.449
18346.533385.165
19342.934379.579
20339.767375.138
21336.250370.812
22332.228365.956
23329.276362.533
24326.034357.500
25323.191354.319
26319.474351.563
27315.955347.335
28312.752343.950
29309.844339.982
30306.557335.574
31303.318331.502
32299.800327.324
33296.692323.995
34293.360320.687
35290.586316.101
36287.794312.395
37284.946308.660
38281.848305.143
39279.271302.228
40276.630298.361
41274.518294.580
42271.880291.752
43269.079289.351
44267.005286.025
45264.274283.005
46262.005279.591
47259.082276.463
48256.784272.332
49254.270269.169
50251.539265.712
51248.874262.540
52246.504259.331
53243.384255.533
54240.867251.853
55238.343248.071
56235.841243.417
57233.163240.630
58230.215237.786
59228.044234.629
60224.910230.431
61222.018226.175
62219.487223.025
63217.049220.049
64213.871216.349
65210.913213.431
66208.467210.415
67204.785207.565
68202.000203.800
69198.833199.871
70195.812197.004
71192.801193.028
72189.405189.796
73186.396185.947
74182.693182.454
75179.175178.520
76176.332174.949
77172.750170.994
78169.467167.281
79166.263163.667
80162.056158.846
81159.638154.220
82156.129149.732
83152.158144.530
84147.862140.083
85142.904136.159
86137.718130.772
87133.462125.090
88127.123120.422
89121.193114.706
90115.887108.210
91109.411102.014
92101.02294.545
9392.27886.420
9483.08976.346
9571.45869.049
9659.35060.636
9747.37648.513
9830.18338.439
990.43927.462


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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