Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile82.112
Median153.309
Mean171.970
75% Quartile242.189
Interquartile Range160.076

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1490.988
2439.110
3418.738
4401.962
5389.513
6372.147
7359.887
8348.376
9336.823
10328.090
11320.802
12312.704
13306.520
14300.284
15293.379
16287.859
17281.366
18274.698
19268.780
20264.085
21259.519
22254.403
23250.803
24245.521
25242.190
26239.309
27234.898
28231.374
29227.254
30222.691
31218.488
32214.192
33210.779
34207.398
35202.730
36198.974
37195.204
38191.669
39188.752
40184.897
41181.149
42178.360
43176.001
44172.749
45169.811
46166.510
47163.502
48159.559
49156.561
50153.309
51150.347
52147.373
53143.883
54140.534
55137.126
56132.983
57130.529
58128.046
59125.318
60121.733
61118.152
62115.537
63113.094
64110.096
65107.763
66105.381
67103.158
68100.263
6997.294
7095.161
7192.251
7289.926
7387.206
7484.784
7582.108
7679.728
7777.145
7874.772
7972.510
8069.563
8166.814
8264.218
8361.295
8458.869
8556.782
8653.998
8751.159
8848.899
8946.218
9043.280
9140.579
9237.445
9334.173
9430.289
9527.575
9624.527
9720.232
9816.685
9912.743


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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