Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile71.922
Median93.872
Mean101.413
75% Quartile122.291
Interquartile Range50.369

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1241.618
2210.042
3198.771
4189.931
5183.618
6175.144
7169.388
8164.146
9159.039
10155.277
11152.201
12148.848
13146.334
14143.837
15141.117
16138.975
17136.492
18133.982
19131.788
20130.069
21128.415
22126.582
23125.305
24123.450
25122.291
26121.296
27119.784
28118.586
29117.197
30115.672
31114.279
32112.868
33111.755
34110.659
35109.157
36107.958
37106.761
38105.646
39104.731
40103.527
41102.363
42101.500
43100.773
4499.775
4598.876
4697.869
4796.954
4895.759
4994.853
5093.872
5192.980
5292.085
5391.037
5490.031
5589.009
5687.765
5787.027
5886.280
5985.458
6084.375
6183.290
6282.495
6381.750
6480.831
6580.114
6679.377
6778.686
6877.782
6976.847
7076.170
7175.240
7274.491
7373.606
7472.810
7571.921
7671.121
7770.242
7869.424
7968.634
8067.589
8166.595
8265.639
8364.540
8463.608
8562.790
8661.674
8760.503
8859.545
8958.375
9057.047
9155.779
9254.241
9352.548
9450.400
9548.793
9646.859
9743.844
9841.012
9937.335


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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