Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile49.158
Median64.448
Mean66.232
75% Quartile81.267
Interquartile Range32.109

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1128.166
2118.292
3114.426
4111.247
5108.892
6105.612
7103.300
8101.133
998.961
1097.321
1195.954
1294.436
1393.278
1492.111
1590.820
1689.788
1788.575
1887.330
1986.226
2085.350
2184.499
2283.545
2382.874
2481.889
2581.267
2680.730
2779.907
2879.249
2978.480
3077.627
3176.841
3276.037
3375.398
3474.764
3573.887
3673.181
3772.471
3871.804
3971.252
4070.522
4169.810
4269.279
4368.830
4468.208
4567.645
4667.010
4766.430
4865.666
4965.083
5064.448
5163.867
5263.281
5362.590
5461.922
5561.239
5660.401
5759.902
5859.393
5958.831
6058.086
6157.334
6256.780
6356.258
6455.611
6555.104
6654.580
6754.088
6853.439
6952.765
7052.276
7151.599
7251.052
7350.402
7449.815
7549.157
7648.562
7747.906
7847.292
7946.697
8045.907
8145.152
8244.423
8343.580
8442.863
8542.231
8641.367
8740.456
8839.709
8938.793
9037.750
9136.751
9235.537
9334.198
9432.496
9531.221
9629.690
9727.311
9825.092
9922.252


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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