Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Probability distribution for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile210.665178.526
Median283.294265.712
Mean282.223270.006
75% Quartile353.611354.318
Interquartile Range142.946175.792

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1532.735586.522
2501.575538.419
3481.499519.517
4467.898503.946
5455.090492.385
6447.183476.247
7438.125464.844
8429.096454.128
9422.243443.364
10416.394435.219
11410.822428.414
12405.592420.845
13399.904415.059
14394.926409.217
15390.832402.741
16386.617397.556
17383.103391.449
18379.686385.165
19375.915379.579
20371.397375.138
21367.345370.812
22364.234365.956
23361.012362.533
24356.506357.500
25353.699354.319
26350.631351.563
27347.434347.335
28344.522343.950
29341.201339.982
30337.834335.574
31334.790331.502
32331.526327.324
33328.795323.995
34325.891320.687
35322.850316.101
36320.041312.395
37316.170308.660
38313.378305.143
39311.068302.228
40308.459298.361
41305.908294.580
42302.978291.752
43300.818289.351
44298.215286.025
45295.945283.005
46294.040279.591
47291.710276.463
48288.305272.332
49285.889269.169
50283.294265.712
51280.363262.540
52277.325259.331
53274.480255.533
54271.563251.853
55268.669248.071
56265.789243.417
57263.364240.630
58260.728237.786
59258.515234.629
60255.998230.431
61253.366226.175
62250.229223.025
63247.425220.049
64245.164216.349
65242.142213.431
66239.241210.415
67236.107207.565
68232.370203.800
69229.574199.871
70226.660197.004
71223.013193.028
72219.747189.796
73217.049185.947
74213.486182.454
75210.664178.520
76207.202174.949
77204.080170.994
78201.486167.281
79197.621163.667
80193.756158.846
81190.653154.220
82187.355149.732
83183.283144.530
84178.839140.083
85174.042136.159
86169.291130.772
87164.667125.090
88159.030120.422
89152.476114.706
90147.476108.210
91139.009102.014
92132.52494.545
93123.52286.420
94114.09076.346
95104.02969.049
9690.51160.636
9776.58348.513
9861.12038.439
9932.01327.462


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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