Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1971) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep12.2247.46511.4323.87211.38536.609
Sep-Oct23.78518.26119.0986.30130.820119.030
Sep-Nov38.04223.47430.4928.63345.252181.294

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1063.95770.805
2049.93251.218
3041.54641.379
4035.25033.851
5030.21028.378
6025.79823.440
7021.57819.533
8017.32315.809
9012.73611.745

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1111.453159.978
298.067123.468
389.864111.515
483.562102.542
578.65996.350
674.20688.325
771.48583.062
868.95278.401
966.11073.982
1063.95770.805
1161.78468.255
1260.46965.527
1358.95863.515
1457.72961.546
1556.07259.435
1654.68257.797
1753.27155.925
1851.93754.063
1950.72052.459
2049.93251.218
2149.09750.037
2248.21248.744
2347.29947.853
2446.52546.572
2545.73745.780
2644.92845.105
2743.93744.088
2843.23843.290
2942.31142.374
3041.54641.379
3140.92240.480
3240.10339.578
3339.41338.873
3438.71038.186
3538.12837.253
3637.39536.515
3736.80335.787
3836.37135.114
3935.81434.566
4035.25033.851
4134.64933.168
4234.09432.665
4333.50632.244
4433.02031.670
4532.59431.158
4632.11730.588
4731.60230.076
4831.01929.412
4930.55828.913
5030.21028.378
5129.80627.895
5229.30527.415
5328.80126.857
5428.36726.327
5527.96225.794
5627.53125.151
5727.02724.774
5826.62324.395
5926.21623.980
6025.79823.440
6125.39222.904
6224.98622.515
6324.57922.153
6424.17521.711
6523.76321.369
6623.37921.020
6722.91920.696
6822.43820.274
6922.00819.843
7021.57819.533
7121.11919.112
7220.73318.775
7320.25018.381
7419.81818.030
7519.43917.642
7618.99717.297
7718.57316.921
7818.17916.574
7917.77716.242
8017.32315.809
8116.92415.401
8216.43315.014
8315.99114.575
8415.51514.207
8515.09813.888
8614.66313.458
8714.22013.014
8813.70612.656
8913.19512.225
9012.73611.745
9112.19011.294
9211.58010.759
9311.07410.184
9410.4069.476
959.6468.962
968.6648.362
977.7507.465
986.6066.666
995.1015.693


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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