Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


Return to catchment list
Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1991) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct11.56010.7967.6662.20119.43582.421
Oct-Nov25.81816.00919.0605.10633.867144.684
Oct-Dec55.79820.49532.4357.08456.272218.844

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10100.366118.993
2074.99678.576
3059.58959.228
4047.67845.262
5038.56135.664
6031.45727.497
7024.90721.489
8018.42816.108
9011.81110.741

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1190.741288.962
2162.161225.400
3145.525202.384
4136.322184.713
5127.523171.816
6118.869155.588
7112.410144.704
8107.408134.899
9104.121125.643
10100.366118.993
1197.517113.673
1293.472108.019
1390.098103.823
1487.34899.689
1585.20195.320
1683.02791.984
1780.98088.108
1878.91684.288
1976.66681.053
2074.99678.576
2173.68876.219
2271.81773.552
2370.29471.872
2468.52069.318
2566.79767.785
2665.25466.471
2763.62264.442
2862.15862.869
2960.82061.159
3059.58959.228
3158.20257.537
3256.50755.786
3355.15254.464
3454.15953.235
3553.13951.457
3651.94650.125
3751.16348.774
3849.96647.562
3948.94046.553
4047.67845.262
4146.79944.028
4245.70643.143
4344.45842.380
4443.49141.375
4542.59840.479
4641.76739.463
4741.00338.597
4840.15537.447
4939.35436.573
5038.56135.664
5137.92134.846
5237.25934.052
5336.55033.087
5435.77632.236
5534.94131.303
5634.22930.288
5733.53729.672
5832.83329.046
5932.16928.390
6031.45727.497
6130.91126.666
6230.20826.059
6329.33625.486
6428.73824.812
6528.16624.282
6627.63723.744
6726.85223.247
6826.23322.605
6925.49921.953
7024.90721.489
7124.21120.860
7223.59220.361
7323.04719.782
7422.44019.269
7521.77218.707
7621.27118.209
7720.70117.672
7819.97717.180
7919.15516.714
8018.42816.108
8117.67515.545
8217.08015.015
8316.37314.419
8415.76513.925
8515.10813.501
8614.56812.934
8713.97712.356
8813.25511.894
8912.65611.346
9011.81110.741
9111.04110.183
9210.2169.531
939.5428.843
948.6328.015
957.9087.427
967.1076.757
975.9525.787
984.7154.959
992.3983.998


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence