Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2006) (GL)
Mar130.143101.834138.17140.923169.343260.532
Mar-Apr228.984176.043260.02764.819270.049498.103
Mar-May280.327248.399334.69486.354312.943573.967

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10464.365
20385.186
30335.867
40292.186
50256.436
60220.833
70190.160
80158.707
90121.855

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1676.155
2607.670
3580.978
4559.107
5542.950
6520.527
7504.787
8490.082
9475.404
10464.365
11455.191
12445.041
13437.323
14429.569
15421.020
16414.212
17406.236
18398.082
19390.879
20385.186
21379.669
22373.508
23369.188
24362.872
25358.902
26355.476
27350.246
28346.080
29341.226
30335.867
31330.948
32325.937
33321.968
34318.046
35312.646
36308.316
37303.981
38299.927
39296.588
40292.186
41287.916
42284.744
43282.065
44278.377
45275.051
46271.319
47267.923
48263.475
49260.098
50256.436
51253.103
52249.757
53245.830
54242.062
55238.226
56233.557
57230.788
58227.984
59224.897
60220.833
61216.761
62213.779
63210.986
64207.546
65204.859
66202.106
67199.528
68196.154
69192.674
70190.160
71186.710
72183.935
73180.667
74177.734
75174.468
76171.537
77168.328
78165.350
79162.484
80158.707
81155.134
82151.713
83147.802
84144.502
85141.623
86137.717
87133.652
88130.351
89126.351
90121.855
91117.605
92112.518
93107.002
94100.138
9595.105
9689.174
9780.212
9872.128
9962.149


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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