Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


Return to catchment list
Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2000) (GL)
Apr98.84274.209121.85623.896100.706318.835
Apr-May150.185146.565196.52345.431143.601407.572
Apr-Jun179.156176.992264.18352.079170.357444.582

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10295.564
20239.868
30208.259
40181.936
50161.352
60141.500
70124.735
80107.662
9087.454

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1478.370
2413.844
3390.065
4371.174
5357.564
6339.165
7326.589
8315.092
9303.857
10295.564
11288.773
12281.367
13275.808
14270.287
15264.273
16259.537
17254.049
18248.505
19243.661
20239.868
21236.222
22232.185
23229.375
24225.298
25222.753
26220.568
27217.253
28214.630
29211.591
30208.259
31205.222
32202.147
33199.727
34197.347
35194.089
36191.492
37188.906
38186.500
39184.526
40181.936
41179.437
42177.587
43176.031
44173.895
45171.976
46169.830
47167.884
48165.346
49163.427
50161.352
51159.469
52157.585
53155.380
54153.272
55151.131
56148.534
57146.999
58145.446
59143.741
60141.500
61139.261
62137.624
63136.093
64134.210
65132.742
66131.240
67129.833
68127.996
69126.102
70124.735
71122.861
72121.354
73119.580
74117.988
75116.217
76114.627
77112.886
78111.270
79109.714
80107.662
81105.719
82103.857
83101.725
8499.924
8598.349
8696.209
8793.976
8892.158
8989.948
9087.454
9185.086
9282.236
9379.124
9475.216
9572.322
9668.876
9763.584
9858.707
9952.519


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence