Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp


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Product list for Bloomfield River at China Camp



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Historical and exceedance probability for Bloomfield River at China Camp ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan54.85251.10160.0131.81752.43668.241
Jan-Feb140.48169.492142.18111.973137.687209.327
Jan-Mar269.643171.326280.35229.054307.029564.983

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10408.139435.219
20364.249375.138
30330.472335.574
40300.462298.361
50276.201265.712
60250.116230.431
70220.085197.004
80187.344158.846
90141.835108.210

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1527.142586.522
2491.852538.419
3473.678519.517
4458.391503.946
5447.182492.385
6437.647476.247
7427.785464.844
8421.229454.128
9414.910443.364
10408.139435.219
11402.889428.414
12398.001420.845
13393.413415.059
14388.927409.217
15384.430402.741
16379.732397.556
17374.664391.449
18370.355385.165
19367.186379.579
20364.249375.138
21360.144370.812
22355.915365.956
23353.500362.533
24350.064357.500
25346.905354.319
26343.707351.563
27340.259347.335
28337.005343.950
29333.668339.982
30330.472335.574
31327.062331.502
32324.118327.324
33321.041323.995
34318.163320.687
35314.634316.101
36311.855312.395
37308.852308.660
38306.420305.143
39303.732302.228
40300.462298.361
41297.875294.580
42295.789291.752
43292.947289.351
44291.275286.025
45288.722283.005
46286.027279.591
47283.681276.463
48281.322272.332
49278.927269.169
50276.201265.712
51273.869262.540
52271.519259.331
53268.801255.533
54265.982251.853
55262.917248.071
56261.053243.417
57258.277240.630
58255.444237.786
59252.813234.629
60250.116230.431
61247.333226.175
62244.084223.025
63240.981220.049
64238.154216.349
65235.996213.431
66232.807210.415
67229.559207.565
68226.731203.800
69223.467199.871
70220.085197.004
71216.970193.028
72213.580189.796
73210.660185.947
74207.898182.454
75204.607178.520
76201.362174.949
77197.848170.994
78193.808167.281
79191.198163.667
80187.344158.846
81183.856154.220
82179.757149.732
83176.698144.530
84172.611140.083
85167.836136.159
86163.446130.772
87157.582125.090
88151.835120.422
89146.422114.706
90141.835108.210
91134.982102.014
92124.95094.545
93116.88686.420
94108.04376.346
9596.78869.049
9683.32660.636
9770.03548.513
9855.20838.439
9926.56427.462


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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